The Fear of the “Black Swan”

“The Fear of the “Black Swan”

The Black Swan, in the animal kingdom, a rare species whose natural range lies in the far away Australia and New Zealand, is considered, until its discovery in the 18th century, as a symbol for something non-imaginable and was now regarded as a metaphor for very rare events, but with a large impact exert on our thinking and acting .

Recently came with the book of the same title “The Black Swan,” the New Yorker essayist and mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb worldwide in the headlines of the press with the thesis that unexpected events of catastrophic proportions cannot be predicted by calculations of probability. As a striking example, he states the terrorist attacks of 11th September 2001 in New York. But the meltdown of Fukoshima in Japan, a country that is technologically and economically at the highest level and particularly sensitive to risk, could also not be prevented, so it came to the dramatic nuclear accident this year. Although the probability calculation typically occurs one district at a nuclear power plant within a million years (according to the German federal company for investment and Reactor Safety (GRS)) may appear on this statistical calculation, the event can just occur five consecutive times every 25 years and then some millions of years not more.

But also the current financial crisis can be determined by Taleb’s theory as a Black Swan, especially according to calculations of the insurance company Allianz, the current situation with the Great Depression of the 30tees is quite comparable, in which the U.S. stock market lost like a lot of value as in 2008. Despite the support of the banking system through the states affected by the crisis, the normality of a situation is nothing to be felt. What looks like an end to the crisis as the editorial economic staff of the world in explained, is “obviously a wait for a recent onset of crisis. The fear of the new Black Swan goes on: The event, which nobody expected and that could again make the world out of joint. ”




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